Texas Braces for Arctic Blast Significant Temperature Drops Expected Statewide

An Arctic blast and polar vortex are heading toward Texas, and while some forecasters suggest it’s still too early to make definitive predictions, others indicate that the Lone Star State may experience a sustained period of winter weather, potentially bringing snow.

Historically, Texas isn't known for harsh winters, with average afternoon temperatures in San Antonio typically hovering in the mid-60s. However, a series of strong cold fronts could bring more than a week of temperatures well below average, marking the first prolonged stretch of winter weather since the season began.

AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva explained that the key difference with this cold blast is its duration. It’s not going to be just one or two days of cold. This could last several days with below-average temperatures, he told MySA. DaSilva forecasts a week-long period between January 6 and January 12, where temperatures in Texas will fall 10 to 15 degrees below average.

For San Antonio, this could mean several days of afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to mid-50s, a stark contrast to the near-80-degree days seen this winter. The further north you go, the colder it will get.

The cold spell is expected to begin on Monday, with the most intense days coming during the second and third waves of cold fronts, around January 7–8 and January 10–11. DaSilva noted that this Arctic blast is actually a series of three cold fronts moving in succession throughout the week.

While DaSilva emphasized that this event will not resemble the devastating Winter Storm Uri of 2021, which brought snow and single-digit temperatures across Texas, he acknowledged that temperatures will dip below freezing overnight and in the mornings. However, it will not be as severe as that storm, which tragically claimed hundreds of lives and exposed weaknesses in Texas' power grid.

While it will undoubtedly feel cold, the biggest uncertainty surrounding this Arctic blast is the potential for precipitation. Will snow fall in San Antonio or North Texas? While forecasts vary, there is a possibility. Some computer models show the potential for snow in certain areas with this cold front, DaSilva said. Northern Texas has the highest likelihood, but there is still a chance that snow could make it as far south as San Antonio.

Whether snowflakes will fall or accumulate in cities like Dallas or San Antonio depends largely on where the storms form. If they develop closer to the Gulf, the odds of seeing snow in San Antonio increase. However, if the storms form further north, the chances of snow diminish.

There is a chance of seeing snowflakes during the first half of the month, DaSilva added.